Weekend Preview: Wake Me Up When Golden Compass Debuts

     Immediately after Thanksgiving, the box office acts a lot like people do.  When you excuse yourself from the dinner table, after stuffing yourself with a plateful of turkey, you generally feel tired and non-responsive.  Well, business at the movies is much the same way.  The weekend after Thanksgiving usually sees some larger weekend-to-weekend drops because grosses were inflated by the Thanksgiving holiday.  On top of this, there is only one new wide release this weekend, and it doesn't seem to have much potential.  In other words, after a highly satisfying last weekend, expect the box office to come back down to earth with a loud thud over these next few days.

     Awake is the sole film to debut in wide release this weekend, and ironically enough, it looks more like a snoozer.  The Jessica Alba/Hayden Christensen thriller centers on a man who is unfortunately awake during his surgery.  The ads look rather generic, and neither Alba nor Christensen have proven themselves huge draws outside their respective action franchises (Fantastic Four and Star Wars), so I wouldn't expect Awake to be a breakout success.  The film wasn't screened in advance for critics which is never a good sign of its quality, but it couldn't possibly get worse reviews than Alba's last film, Good Luck Chuck, could it?  Opening in 2,002 theaters, Awake should pull in a weak $8 million.

     Among holdovers, Enchanted should again top the charts.  It might fall about 50% to $17.5 million, which is a steeper than normal drop for a family film, but again, the Thanksgiving holiday inflated last weekend's figures, so the drop should be much less steep in the weeks to come.  After 12 days, Enchanted will have conjured up about $70 million.

     Like most African-American aimed movies, This Christmas should fall a bit harder, by about 55% to $8.2 million over the weekend, which would give the surprise hit a good $36 million after two weekends.  Beowulf should fall a similar 55% this weekend to about $7.5 million for a $68 million total. 

     Next come a slew of films in the $5 million range:  Bee Movie and Fred Claus should fall about 50% to $6 million and $5.3 million, respectively, and Hitman should follow the typical video game movie trajectory and plunge by about 60% to $5.2 million for a $29.5 million total.  No Country For Old Men should have a good hold, as it adds 135 theaters and has an older audience, and it might add about $5.3 million for a $23.5 million total.  August Rush might fall about 45% to $5.2 million for a $20 million cume.  Look for American Gangster to rake in another $5 million.

     The Mist and Mr. Magorium's Wonder Emporium should each fall about 50% for $4.5 million and $3.9 million over the weekend, respectively.

Predicted Top Twelve for Nov 30-Dec 2

1. Enchanted - $17.5 million

2. This Christmas - $8.2 million

3. Awake - $8 million

4. Beowulf - $7.5 million

5. Bee Movie - $6 million

6. No Country For Old Men - $5.3 million

7. Fred Claus - $5.3 million

8. Hitman - $5.2 million

9. August Rush - $5.2 million

10. American Gangster - $5 million

11. The Mist - $4.5 million

12. Mr. Magorium's Wonder Emporium - $3.9 million