Welcome to today's Christmas Preview, which will be short and to the point (because hey, even box office analysts need some family time on Christmas Eve). On Christmas Day, four films enter an already crowded marketplace, each hoping to carve out its own niche at the box office.
Alien Vs. Predator: Requiem is a sequel to 2004's $80 million hit Alien Vs. Predator. Full of gore, blood, grisly deaths, blood, and gore, this gory bloodbath of a thriller was not screened for critics, which is never promising for its reviews, though it should still have the best opening week of the newcomers. Any success it finds will be based solely on the success of the Alien and Predator franchises, since this has pretty much no star power. AVP:R (that's the ridiculous, abbreviated title its going by) opens in 2,653 theaters, and if it performs well, it will obvi have anoth lame sequel, but whatev. I'm thinking it can bag $17 million in the days before the weekend.
The Water Horse: Legend of the Deep, a Walden Media production, is the story of a young Scottish boy who discovers a strange water creature. He befirends it and raises it up in his bathtub, until it becomes too large for him to keep in the house. Forced to move it into the lake, the boy must try to keep the creature a secret as it grows into the Loch Ness monster. The trailers are nice, though unexciting, but it should still have an alright box office run because of the lack of competition. If Alvin and the Chipmunks can make $85 million in ten days, then there is certainly room for another, better reviewed film aimed at the under ten set. In 2,772 theaters, The Water Horse might pull in $14 million over the next three days.
The Great Debaters was a movie I hadn't heard of until it garnered a surprise Golden Globe nomination for Best Picture. Produced by Oprah's production company, Harpo, The Great Debaters is an inspirational teacher drama starring Denzel Washington. It chronicles the journey of Wiley College's all black debate team, and their fight to gain acceptance in an all white competition in the 1930's. With good reviews, The Great Debaters can rely on Denzel's presence to draw in some crowds, but it will need some awards attention to transcend the expected box office for this rather generic story. Opening in 1,164 venues, it could earn $6 million until the weekend.
Juno, Fox Searchlight's popular teen pregnancy comedy (which I previously wrote about here) expands into 998 theaters on Christmas, and it should see some great returns. Juno might take in an additional $8 million in the time before Friday.
The rest of the movies' weekly totals should just about equal their previous weekend grosses, and this is where the power of holiday box office can be seen at work, and small opening numbers can be redeemed.
MERRY CHRISTMAS EVERYONE!
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