Weekend Preview: Will Compass Strike Gold?

     For the second weekend in a row, there is only one new wide release hitting screens, and the Top 12 will look much the same as it did last weekend.  As Christmas nears, family films start to see some smaller weekend-to-weekend decreases, based mostly on the fact that so many people are out and about while shopping, and this increased traffic helps the movie business tremendously.  Unfortunately, there's only one new release in The Golden Compass and a whole bunch of holdovers, so don't expect the box office to be too exciting.

     The Golden Compass will easily win the weekend, although I've already argued (rather extensively) why I don't think it will be a major success.  The reviews are still lackluster, and I just don't see this project earning back it's $150 million budget, unless it really shines right out of the gate.  I think a big problem is that the movie's tone is being called "cold," and that's not just because of the snowy land it takes place in- the holidays are all about warmth and cheer, not gloom.  It will have to perform like a champion overseas if any sequels are to be justified.  Launching in a huge 3,528 theaters, The Golden Compass might find about $35 million for the weekend.

     Other than that, very little has changed since last weekend.  Enchanted should have a fairly small 35% drop to about $11 million, which is good for second place.  Beowulf and This Christmas will duke it out for third place, with about $5 million each. The biggest change is that No Country For Old Men launches into 329 more theaters, raising its overall count to 1,324.  This should hurt its per theater average, but help it have the best hold in the Top 12, landing it in fifth place with about $5.2 million.   Awake should fall hard.

Predicted Top Twelve for Dec 7-9

1. Golden Compass - $35 million

2. Enchanted - $11 million

3. Beowulf - $5.1 million

4. This Christmas - $5 million

5. No Country For Old Men - $4.2 million

6. Fred Claus - $3.8 million

7. August Rush - $3.5 million

8. Hitman - $3.2 million

9. Awake - $3 million

10. The Mist - $2.4 million

11. Bee Movie - $2.2 million

12. American Gangster - $2.1 million